东华大学学报(英文版)

2019, v.36(05) 498-506

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Prediction of the Logistics Demand Based on an Innovative Mixed Model: an Empirical Case from Nanping City,China
Prediction of the Logistics Demand Based on an Innovative Mixed Model: an Empirical Case from Nanping City,China

王波;魏乐琴;陈金雄;蔡尚斌;张立中;边舫;

摘要(Abstract):

The research intends to make scientific prediction of the logistics demand of Nanping City based on mathematical model calculation so as to provide reasonable strategic guidance for the sustainable and healthy development of urban logistics industry. It constructs a comprehensive index system composed of freight volume and other eight relevant economic indices to form the foundation for the model construction. Combining forecasting models of principal component regression and GM( 1,1) together,it makes mathematical calculation to predict the logistics demand of Nanping City from the years 2018 to 2022. The research makes systematical analyses of the indices influencing the precise prediction of logistics demand from a new perspective,which offers an innovative and practical option for urban logistics prediction. In line with the prediction,it offers some suggestions for the improvement of demand prediction and some strategies for the better development of the logistics industry in Nanping City.

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基金项目(Foundation): National Social Science Foundation of China(No.17CGJ002);; Major Project of Education and Teaching Reform of Undergraduate Universities in Fujian Province,China(No.FBJG20190130)

作者(Author): 王波;魏乐琴;陈金雄;蔡尚斌;张立中;边舫;

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